Our Blogs – Adding value to your investment decisions

We started writing Blogs to convey our thought process, our top relevant data and our contrarian approach (By God’s grace it worked well so far).

Here are some of our previous Blogs in which we predicted and it worked.

Blog 1 – Can ‘SILVER’ Become ‘GOLD’ [ Dated: 30/04/2025]
Silver ($ 36) has given breakout and rally may continue. Silver is a part of Multi Asset Allocation Fund. Its going to be multiyear rally for Silver . 

Blog 2 – What to do in market decline [ Dated: 25/04/2025]
During Equity market corrections we always advise to add Lumpsum. In last correction we advised Equity (Large cap) through mutual funds. In April and May Equity market bounced well. Those who invented Lumpsum apart from their SIP s benefitted . 

Blog 3 - Gold Father - Golden Rally of Gold [ Dated: 25/04/2025]
Gold rally is fuelled by central Banks buying. Gold and dumping US treasuries since Rasia-Ukraine war. This trend has accelerated in Trump era. We have been bullish on Gold since 2019-2020. Encouraged our clients to buy SGB, we are taking bet on Gold from Multi Asset Allocation fund. (Minimum 10% allocation to gold).One can consider Gold etf as well . 

Blog 4 – Increase your surface area [ Dated: 28/02/2024]
In this blog we suggested to invest across Asset class and globe through MF. Diversification is key to mitigate risk in investment. This has also helped our clients. We have some funds where we take global exposure. (US, Europe, Chiana, Japan) through MF.

Blog 5 – Long Indian Bonds [ Dated: 26/02/2024]
Yesterday in surprise move RBI decided to cut interest rates by 50 BPS and CRR has been surprisingly cut by massive 100 BP.

This 3rd Repo Rate cut by RBI in the last one year. It has helped Bond Market particularly medium duration funds, (12.5% Last year) Low duration funds and hybrid funds.

So we will read ,study, and analyze data and information . We will share key data and inputs with you.

Let's grow together

Blog by Mr.Santosh G Akerkar for education and awareness purposes.
Best Regards,
Santosh Akerkar

Can ‘SILVER’ Become ‘GOLD’

While investors' interest in gold is soaring, it’s also a great time to look at silver as a compelling alternative.

  • Silver demand has outpaced supply for the 4th consecutive year.
  • Gold to silver ratio is at 88:1 well above the long-term average of 65:1 indicating that silver is undervalued.
  • Indicators suggest that silver still is relatively attractive v/s gold and like gold silvers extended up more still pending.

Why Now?
Silver offers a more attractive entry point relative to gold and could be the undervalued gem in your portfolio.

Word of Caution
Silver is a very volatile commodity and often moves wildly. It is not for everyone, especially not for the faint hearted. Most investors are better off having it as part of a Multi Asset Allocation strategy through an MF.

For others who understand these nuances having some exposure to this commodity using silver FOF could make sense.

Silver currently trades at  $ 32.9/ troy, ounce and rupees 96000 per kg.

 

Blog by Mr.Santosh G Akerkar for education and awareness purposes.
Best Regards,
Santosh Akerkar

On Checking Your Portfolio

An example from Taleb
“ Over short time increment, one observes the variability of the portfolio, not the returns.”
--Nassim Taleb

In his book, Fooled by Randomness, he gives an interesting example.
A 15% return with a 10% volatility per annum translates into a 93% probability of a success in any given year.
This means if you check your portfolio once a year, there is a 93% probability of seeing a positive result.
If you check the portfolio every day, then there is only 54% probability of seeing a positive result.
For one month, it is 67% and for one quarter it is 77%. Seeing negative results in portfolio would trigger. Unpleasant emotions resulting in inappropriate action. That’s why most investors are unable to stay the course.
If you see your portfolio only once a year, the probability of negative results come down significantly. This would ensure that you have sufficient emotional strength to stay the course.
From 1979-80 to 2015-16, for the last 46 financial years, we had 31 years of positive Sensex returns and 15 years of negative returns. So since 1979 the Indian Stock Market has produced an annual gain 68% of the time or 31 times while losing ground just 15 times.
So even in real life scenario, if you check the portfolio once a year, the probability of seeing a positive return is high.
So don’t check your portfolio frequently.

P.S. - Honest confession I check or review my and family portfolio twice in a year.

A blog from Santosh G Akerkar. For Educational and Awareness purposes.
Best Regards,
Santosh Akerkar

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